Sometimes this game can appear to be all too easy, can it not? You might spot a perennial powerhouse with their ace going up against the Bad News Bears and their starting pitcher, Adam Lambert. Well you’re no dummy! Instead of eating the huge chalk, you ascertain that there is no way that the favored squad will not win by two or more runs, and play the run line to increase your winnings. If only it were always this simple.
Experts say, however, that this may not be the best strategy when playing the runline. There are a surprisingly high amount of one-run games in Major League Baseball. As of this writing, even the top teams in the league have played in a high percentage of one-run games.
You can see below for the 13 MLB teams with winning records, the percentage of one run victories they have been involved in. Of course they probably were not favored for every one of those, but it can still give you a decent idea of just how เว็บแทงบอลออนไลน์ many times the RL can beat you, even if the team wins the actual game.
* Dodgers 35% * Mets 33% * Angels 32% * Rangers 31% * Brewers 28% * Tigers 27% * Yankees 27% * Blue Jays 26% * Red Sox 26% * Cardinals 23% * Rays 23% * Phillies 22% * Reds 22% * Giants 18%
I’m not sure what is more shocking – how high some of those numbers are, or the fact that the Giants have a winning record! But as you can see, even your powerhouse teams only win by more than one run about two out of every three times.
Another stat that will make you think twice before pulling that run line trigger is total team scoring. If you compare the most prolific teams to the most anemic, there is a difference of only two runs per game being put on the scoreboard (NYY 5.70, Sea 3.73). That means that everyone in between is averaging pretty darn close within each other. It all makes me wonder if it would just be wiser to play the other side of the run line.
Of course you can always play the RL the opposite way by playing the underdog who is now getting a run and a half to work with. This can be smart at times, but will turn your +125 play into a -140 team real quick. Most players are greedy (like me) and enjoy taking shots every so often at the big hit. But through my experiences, playing the team getting the runs might not be as sexy a date, but will generally put out more often.
If you can follow these tips above and find out more in the internet or forums, basically you can have a close overview on how the bettors commonly bet and how to find leaks to lower your probability of losing and increase the winning probability. It is about probability after all.
The next ultimate thing you need is to follow one or few winning systems that have good transparent winning records.
Many bettors do not believe that there are MLB strategies and systems that work magically.
The fact is, following a good MLB betting system is the key in making a $30k or even a few folds more per annual in MLB betting. People behind the idea of a betting strategies and systems spent many years of their lives by digging through different sports databases to search for patterns and trends to help them come up with an effective betting formula. Professional and advanced bettors have a few MLB systems to follow, while some prefer paying few hundreds to thousands a year for reputable handicapper service to save time in doing the research work.
Keep in mind-To really win consistently wagering on baseball or any sport for that matter you need to invest in a handicapper or system that uses trends, angles, experience, and a proven system to churn out winner after winner to bring in consistent profits.”
Do not invest on systems which are not PROVEN to be a consistent winner. When I say consistent winner, it should be winning 75% and above.
Do not spend time on free picks that don’t end well. The only reason subscribing for free picks should only be personal reference.
Do not spend time either on systems and picks that are too risky. Risky bets give higher odds but how often can you win in risky bets? Only amateur MLB bettor falls easily into these traps. Don’t be one of them!